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Posted by: Veritatum17 on 2008-06-20, 07:13:43
I have a couple of thoughts, but would need to run a regression analysis to test how much each of them contributes to the early dipping you see. 1) Profit-taking from the night before, although you only had a half-cent movement, so this would be on very large blocks of contracts. 2) The large price rise at the start of the trading day leads to speculation that price will fall, which leads to short-selling, which is viewed immediately in the market and causes prices to drop. 3) Automated position closing. I know many stock traders (which I identify with more) set up their accounts to dump their shares if the price drops more than 5% or some other level. Short-sellers (who expect the dollar to drop relative to the euro) may have their accounts automatically close their positions after such a rise - this may account for the steep sell-off. Consider that this is the first week in quite some time that the dollar appreciated noticeably. Those are just some thoughts. I stay out of ForEx because the insiders (import-export companies) will always have me beat on information, whereas in the stock markets I can at least take a more-informed risk. |